Environmental indicators, modelling and outlooks

OECD Expert workshop on Economic Modelling of Climate and Related Tipping Points

Emerging evidence highlights the increasing risks of systemic changes caused by climate change. These include large-scale tipping points in the Earth’s climate as well as climate change-induced impacts that could cause abrupt changes to the economic system. Models that underpin most economic analyses of climate change rarely include the possibility of abrupt changes to the climate or economic systems. Nevertheless, such changes – climate and related tipping points – are a major determinant of the optimal levels of policy effort.

The workshop convened leading experts in the field of environmental-economic modelling and climate science to discuss the current state of scientific understanding surrounding abrupt changes to the climate and economic systems due to climate change and climate-related policies.

The workshop was articulated in four sessions distributed over two days. The first session set the scene by providing an overview of our understanding of tipping points. The following two sessions focused on state-of-the-art economic modelling of climate and related tipping points. Finally, a panel discussion provided a reflection on the broader implications for research advancement. Each session was chaired by an expert who introduced the speakers and fostered a discussion on modelling approaches.

This event is part of the OECD Horizontal Project on Building Climate and Economic Resilience in the Transition to a Low-Carbon Economy.

SUMMARY REPORT (PDF)

Day 1

 Day 2

Agenda

Opening remarks: Rodolfo Lacy, OECD 

Session 1 - Climate tipping points: the state of knowledge

Chair: Laurence Boone, OECD 

Speakers:

• Timothy M.Lenton, University of Exeter [Presentation]
• Elizabeth Kopits, US Environmental Protection Agency [Presentation]

Session 2 - Modelling the economic consequences of tipping points in the climate system 

Chair: Shardul Agrawala, OECD 

Speakers:

• Simon Dietz, London School of Economics and Political Science [Presentation]
• Yongyang Cai, Ohio State University [Presentation]
• Christian Traeger, University of Oslo [Presentation]
• William Nordhaus, Yale University [Presentation]

Session 3 - Modelling the impacts of climate-related tipping points on the macro-economy

Chair: Dave Turner, OECD 

Speakers:

• Michael Kiley, Federal Reserve Board, Washington DC [Presentation]
• Jean Pisani-Ferry, European University Institute, Bruegel and Peterson Institute for International Economics [Presentation]
• Sandra Batten, Bank of England [Presentation]
• Francesco Lamperti, Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna and RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment [Presentation]

Session 4 - Irreversible change: taking stock and the way ahead

Chair: Elisa Lanzi, OECD 

Panelists:

• Karen Fisher-Vanden, Pennsylvania State University
• Simon Dietz, London School of Economics and Political Science
• Francesco Lamperti, Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna and RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment
• Rob Dellink, OECD Senior Economist
• Valerio Nispi Landi, Bank of Italy