Military coups, jihadism and insecurity in the Central Sahel
This paper examines the interactions between the 2020-23 Sahelian coups and the trajectories
of jihadism and insecurity, covering three countries: Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger.
First, it examines pre-coup trends in violence. Second, the paper finds that coup-makers’
policy choices have accelerated the worsening of violence beyond the pre-coup baseline
trend, especially when coup-makers authorise new actors to commit violence, although
trends in violence remain somewhat erratic and are even more complex at the sub-national
level. Third, it offers an ambivalent finding on the impact of the withdrawal of the
French Operation Barkhane following Mali’s second coup in 2021. Finally, the paper
discusses the apparent strategies of the region’s two main jihadist groups, which
have largely continued their pre-coup strategies, but have also responded to new conflict
actors and pursued certain opportunities for increased territorial influence.
Available from May 01, 2024
In series:West African Papersview more titles