Publications & Documents

Employment has recovered strongly from the COVID-19 pandemic despite large structural changes in labour markets, such as the widespread adoption of digital business models and remote work. We analyse whether the pandemic has been associated with labour reallocation across occupations and triggered mismatches between occupational labour demand and supply using novel data on employers’ job postings and jobseekers’ clicks across 19 countries from the online job site Indeed. Findings indicate that, on average across countries, the pandemic triggered large and persistent reallocation of postings and clicks across occupations. Occupational mismatch initially increased but was back to pre-pandemic levels at the end of 2022 as employers and workers adjusted to structural changes. The adjustment was substantially slower in countries that resorted to short-time work schemes to preserve employment during the pandemic.

Climate change mitigation policies affect the allocation of workers on the labor market: jobs in high-polluting industries will contract, while jobs in the 'green' sector will grow. A just transition in the labour market requires policies to improve the allocation of workers and their deployability, for instance towards performing green tasks; as well as to manage and minimise scarring effects associated with job losses in polluting industries. Using an econometric analysis, this paper investigates the role of structural and policy factors in shaping a number of relevant labour market transitions, uncovering heterogeneity across different groups of workers. Education is the most important individual-level driver of transitions from non-employment to green jobs, with a particularly strong effect from graduating in scientific fields for young people entering the labour market. Women are significantly less likely than men to move into green jobs out of non-employment. Workers employed in high-polluting occupations face higher displacement risks than other workers, but this does not translate into higher long-term unemployment risks. In terms of policies, the paper finds that the labour market implications of the greening economy can be addressed by general structural policies favouring labour market efficiency in terms of workers’ reallocation, labour market inclusiveness in terms of promoting equality of opportunities and minimising long-term scars. Results also suggest that place-based policies are needed to mitigate scarring effects for displaced workers.

This paper discusses Thailand’s green growth policy framework with a focus on finding the right policy mix and institutional setup. Given that the economy is in a process of catching up with advanced economies, particular emphasis will need to be placed on making the green transition conducive to economic growth and further improvements in living standards. Implementing Thailand’s current pledge to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 and net zero emissions by 2065 will require substantial policy changes. While the expansion of natural gas use over the past years has helped Thailand to contain increases of carbon emissions, reversing the still rising emissions calls for a strong shift towards renewable energy sources. Thailand has already started these efforts. The use of biofuels has increased in road transport, and other renewable energy sources have also expanded. Investments into greener production technologies and a more responsible use of resources have received strong attention. However, most current initiatives are voluntary, which will not be sufficient to achieve the country’s climate goals. As Thailand is highly vulnerable to climate change risks, policies that promote adaptation to climate change will also play an important role.

Access to adequate housing remains challenging in Mexico as many low- and middle- income households cannot afford purchasing a house because of high housing prices and limited access to credit. An underdeveloped housing rental market and insufficient supply of social and affordable housing force many households to resort to self-build or to reside in informal settlements. Administrative fragmentation and lack of coordination across levels of government favours a disordered urban development that provokes residential segregation, with vulnerable groups often living in peripheral areas with limited access to jobs, transport and urban services. Housing policies have recently become more targeted towards low-income households, which is commendable. Expanding the range of housing subsidies and fostering the development of a social rental housing sector would be valuable additional steps to improve access to housing for low-income households. Reforming the fiscal and legal framework to encourage private investment into rental housing and promoting public-private partnerships could boost the supply of affordable housing. Tasking states with ensuring that municipalities comply with federal and state urban and housing legislation and improving coordination across urban, housing and transport infrastructure could ease the implementation of national policies and reduce residential segregation.

Mexico is well integrated into global value chains (GVCs). Its exports as a share of GDP have tripled since 1988. Mexico’s participation in GVCs is mainly driven by backward linkages, i.e. the share of foreign value added in Mexico’s total exports is large, which reflects Mexico’s importance in assembling processes in some manufacturing sectors. Conversely, forward participation, i.e. to what extent trading partners exports incorporate Mexico’s value added, remains low. Ongoing nearshoring trends provide opportunities to strengthen and improve Mexico’s participation in GVCs, and to move up in the value chain and develop stronger forward linkages, which are associated to higher productivity growth. This paper zooms into the most recent developments to assess whether Mexico is already benefiting from these trends. The empirical analysis suggests that Mexico’s wide trade agreements and low tariffs, will help, but improving the business environment and the rule of law, a better educated workforce, or increasing female labour participation would also facilitate deepening forward GVCs linkages.

Switzerland has shown remarkable strength during past economic downturns. A comprehensive risk planning and monitoring system, as well as essential-goods stockpiles has effectively bridged temporary supply disruptions. Yet, rising geopolitical tensions and a global shift towards protectionism pose significant challenges for the Swiss economy. To raise its resilience and productivity, Switzerland should refrain from relying on distortive industrial policies or trade restrictions, and rather continue to commit to international trade and cooperation, strengthen ties with key trading partners and enhance domestic competition. Resuming negotiations with the EU is key to safeguard access to the single market and deepen the economic partnership. Reducing trade barriers and lowering the administrative burden could reduce trade costs, which would allow companies to diversify supply chains while raising productivity.

Mexico has large potential to boost its productivity and attract investment from companies looking to relocate their operations to North America. It also has an historic opportunity to spread the benefits of trade throughout the country, integrate SMEs more forcefully into value chains and to create more and better value chain linkages. Nearshoring is also an opportunity to step up efforts to address and mitigate climate change. Fully realising these opportunities will require addressing long standing challenges related to transport and digital connectivity, regulations, the rule of law, renewable energy and water scarcity.