Publications & Documents

The green transformation of the economy is expected to lead to a sharp reduction in employment in carbon-intensive industries. For designing policies to support displaced workers, it is crucial to better understand the cost of job loss, whether there are specific effects of being displaced from a carbon-intensive sector and which workers are most at risk. By using German administrative labour market data and focusing on mass layoff events, we estimate the cost of involuntary job displacement for workers in high carbon-intensity sectors and compare it with the displacement costs for workers in low carbon-intensity sectors. We find that displaced workers from high carbon-intensity sectors have, on average, higher earnings losses and face stronger difficulties in finding a new job and recovering their earnings. Our results indicate that this is mainly due to human capital specificity, the regional clustering of carbon-intensive activities and higher wage premia in carbon-intensive firms. Workers displaced in high carbon-intensity sectors are older, face higher local labour market concentration and have fewer outside options for finding jobs with similar skill requirements. They have a higher probability to switch occupations and sectors, move to occupations that are more different in terms of skill requirements compared to the pre-displacement job, and are more likely to change workplace districts after displacement. Women, older workers and those with vocational degrees as well as workers in East Germany, experience particularly high costs in case they are displaced from high carbon-intensity sectors.

The OECD AI Principles call for AI actors to be accountable for the proper functioning of their AI systems in accordance with their role, context, and ability to act. Likewise, the OECD Guidelines for Multinational Enterprises aim to minimise adverse impacts that may be associated with an enterprise’s operations, products and services. To develop ‘trustworthy’ and ‘responsible’ AI systems, there is a need to identify and manage AI risks. As calls for the development of accountability mechanisms and risk management frameworks continue to grow, interoperability would enhance efficiency and reduce enforcement and compliance costs. This report provides an analysis of the commonalities of AI risk management frameworks. It demonstrates that, while some elements may sometimes differ, all the risk management frameworks analysed follow a similar and sometimes functionally equivalent risk management process.

Skills are vital for building resilient economies and societies. By helping individuals develop a diverse range of skills and empowering them to apply these skills effectively, skills policies play a crucial role in responding to emerging threats, such as environmental degradation and harmful applications of technologies used to collect, generate, and exchange information. This edition of the Skills Outlook highlights the importance of supporting individuals in acquiring a wide range of skills, at varying levels of proficiency, to promote economic and social resilience. Additionally, the report acknowledges the role of attitudes and dispositions in enabling skills development and effective skills use. It also emphasises the need for policy makers to monitor the costs associated with policies aimed at promoting the green and digital transition, and how the transition affects inequalities. Training opportunities that respond to emerging labour market needs and efforts to facilitate their uptake can promote a just and inclusive green and digital transition. In turn, education systems that equip young people not only with skills but attitudes to manage change can ensure that the green and digital transition is sustainable in the longer term.

As the displacement of Ukrainians in OECD countries is prolonged, additional integration support in host countries is needed for optimal outcomes, yet the nature and scope of support needed may not align with the usual integration practices as many refugees are expected to want to return to home when the situation permits. Considering the conflicting needs, adopting a dual intent approach could prepare for both indefinite stay as well as for possible return of refugees by deliberatively seeking to minimise possible return barriers.

This report analyses the demand for positions that require skills needed to develop or work with AI systems across 14 OECD countries between 2019 and 2022. It finds that, despite rapid growth in the demand for AI skills, AI-related online vacancies comprised less than 1% of all job postings and were predominantly found in sectors such as ICT and Professional Services. Skills related to Machine Learning were the most sought after. The US-focused part of the study reveals a consistent demand for socio-emotional, foundational, and technical skills across all AI employers. However, leading firms – those who posted the most AI jobs – exhibited a higher demand for AI professionals combining technical expertise with leadership, innovation, and problem-solving skills, underscoring the importance of these competencies in the AI field.

The Brussels-Capital Region has witnessed significant improvements in its labour market over the past decade. Local job creation has been driven by ample opportunities for highly-skilled workers whom the Brussels-Capital Region attracts from its surrounding regions, the European Union, and beyond. However, not all of the region’s population has seen their labour market prospects improve equally. Many workers with lower levels of education continue to compete for a small number of vacancies, despite the increasingly tightening labour market. A future vision for the Brussels-Capital Region, therefore, needs to be built on recognising and addressing the multiple and often distinct challenges faced by its young and diverse population. In a labour market that offers high rewards for skills formation, tailoring continuous education and training offerings to different groups while removing barriers to participation in such programmes will need to take priority. Simplifying processes for accessing employment services, streamlining labour market policies, supporting the geographic mobility of less-educated jobseekers, and removing barriers to employment for its migrant population could serve as building blocks to increase labour force participation and improve the employment quality of all local talent.

The world of work is getting older in advanced and an increasing number of emerging economies. Two powerful and persistent trends, longer lifespans and lower birth rates, all but guarantee that midcareer and older workers will make up an even larger portion of the future workforce, with profound implications for our economies, businesses and workers. Are societies adapting quickly enough to cope with ageing at an unprecedented scale? What are some of the key structural barriers, the embedded attitudes and behaviours, that stand in the way of helping midcareer and older workers stay employed longer? What steps can we take to support them as we transition to a more digital and sustainable economy, and make sure that age is no longer a barrier to work? In search of answers, the OECD and Generation, a global employment nonprofit network, teamed up to develop new research based on a survey of thousands of employed and unemployed people, and hiring managers in eight countries: the Czech Republic, France, Germany, Romania, Spain, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The evidence presented in this report aims to foster a more inclusive and resilient labour market for workers at all stages of their careers.

Using panel data for Indonesia, Malawi, Peru and South Africa, this paper investigates the relationship between transitions to formal employment and workers’ labour income. It shows that transiting from informal to formal employment increases the probability of improving workers’ labour income in both absolute and relative terms. However, income gains from formalisation do not accrue to all workers equally. Switching to formal employment has the greatest potential to improve the labour income of the richest workers. The chances of improving the labour income of the poorest workers through formalisation are slim. Transitions between formal and informal employment affect income gains and losses differently for men and women, older and younger workers, and workers with different levels of schooling. The effects of labour market transitions on income changes are considerably greater in magnitude than other life events such as a births, separation, or death of a partner or spouse.