Publications & Documents

Before the war, the Ukrainian Pay-As-You-Go pension system required large government transfers. Since then, large scale emigration and an increasing number of people eligible for pensions have further increased the need for government transfers and exacerbated the challenges of population ageing. At the same time, the system provides relatively low pension benefits, despite fairly high contribution rates and short time in retirement. This reflects to a large degree a relatively narrow contribution base due to a large informal economy and underreporting of labour income. Reform of the system must encourage participation, secure liveable pensions, and safeguard the system’s fiscal sustainability.

The paper contributes to renewed debates about industrial policy in the context of recent initiatives in several OECD economies. It discusses the pros and cons of industrial policies motivated by environmental, national security and place-based/inclusiveness objectives. The paper also considers implementation and design issues, and how to respond to industrial policies in other countries. There are well-grounded economic, social and environmental justifications for some industrial policies. However, there are legitimate concerns that the benefits of such policies could be limited and the costs high. This mainly relates to measures curbing domestic and international competition and the practical and political challenges in designing and implementing effective measures. Thus, while governments may want to experiment with future and welfare-oriented industrial policies, they should exert moderation in scope, exercise caution in design and implementation, and be mindful of possible negative international implications.

Informality is a long-standing structural challenge of Latin American labour markets, as almost half of people in the region live in a household that depends solely on informal employment. Informal workers are often insufficiently covered by social protection policies, for which the eligibility is often tied to formal-sector employment. The need to reform social protection systems across Latin America to make them more effective and fiscally sustainable has become more salient after the COVID pandemic. This paper argues that a basic set of social protection benefits available to all workers, whether they work in the formal or the informal sector, should and can be put in place, although it would require the ability to raise additional tax revenues. Moreover, the incentives for formal job creation would be strengthened if its principal source of financing for such basic social protection were shifted towards general tax revenues, as opposed to social security contributions, which tend to increase the cost of formal job creation. Reforming social protection systems will not be easy, but these reforms can provide the basis for both stronger and more inclusive growth in Latin America.

Employment has recovered strongly from the COVID-19 pandemic despite large structural changes in labour markets, such as the widespread adoption of digital business models and remote work. We analyse whether the pandemic has been associated with labour reallocation across occupations and triggered mismatches between occupational labour demand and supply using novel data on employers’ job postings and jobseekers’ clicks across 19 countries from the online job site Indeed. Findings indicate that, on average across countries, the pandemic triggered large and persistent reallocation of postings and clicks across occupations. Occupational mismatch initially increased but was back to pre-pandemic levels at the end of 2022 as employers and workers adjusted to structural changes. The adjustment was substantially slower in countries that resorted to short-time work schemes to preserve employment during the pandemic.

Climate change mitigation policies affect the allocation of workers on the labor market: jobs in high-polluting industries will contract, while jobs in the 'green' sector will grow. A just transition in the labour market requires policies to improve the allocation of workers and their deployability, for instance towards performing green tasks; as well as to manage and minimise scarring effects associated with job losses in polluting industries. Using an econometric analysis, this paper investigates the role of structural and policy factors in shaping a number of relevant labour market transitions, uncovering heterogeneity across different groups of workers. Education is the most important individual-level driver of transitions from non-employment to green jobs, with a particularly strong effect from graduating in scientific fields for young people entering the labour market. Women are significantly less likely than men to move into green jobs out of non-employment. Workers employed in high-polluting occupations face higher displacement risks than other workers, but this does not translate into higher long-term unemployment risks. In terms of policies, the paper finds that the labour market implications of the greening economy can be addressed by general structural policies favouring labour market efficiency in terms of workers’ reallocation, labour market inclusiveness in terms of promoting equality of opportunities and minimising long-term scars. Results also suggest that place-based policies are needed to mitigate scarring effects for displaced workers.