Reports

Career guidance for adults is a fundamental lever to help adults successfully navigate constantly evolving labour markets. As labour markets in Latin America are hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic and mega trends such as globalisation and digitalisation continue to impact labour demand, support is urgently needed. Millions of adults have lost their jobs and need to identify new career options. However, career guidance for adults is still rare in Latin America. More common are vocational guidance programmes for young people, or labour intermediation services for adults. This report analyses career guidance initiatives for adults in four Latin American countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico). It emphasises the need to establish career guidance higher up on the policy agenda of the region. Lessons are drawn on how to strengthen the coverage and inclusiveness of career guidance, provision and service delivery, quality and impact, as well as governance and funding. The findings build on information collected through the 2020 Survey of Career Guidance for Adults (SCGA), an online survey of adults’ experience with career guidance.

Brazil spends around 15% of GDP on different social benefits, but within these expenditures, different benefits have different social impacts. While the small conditional cash transfer programme Bolsa Família is well-targeted to the poor and has a strong diminishing effect on inequality, pension benefits largely reach those with above-median incomes. Over many years, and as a result of different indexation mechanisms, the real value of pension benefits has increased rapidly, while conditional cash transfers have struggled to keep pace with inflation. This paper presents a simulation experiment using household data to demonstrate the significant potential that changes in the annual benefit indexation mechanism of social security benefits could have had for reducing inequality. Maintaining the purchasing power of pension benefits while shifting the increased pension spending that resulted from automatic indexation towards conditional cash transfers would have allowed significantly stronger progress in reducing inequality. This strengthens the case for rethinking the current indexation mechanism of social security benefits in Brazil.

As Brazil is significantly less integrated into international trade than other emerging market economies, opening up to trade has significant potential to create jobs that are more productive and better paid. At the same time, this will be associated with structural changes and adjustment costs. Some workers are required to move to more productive firms, change occupations, sectors or even location. In particular, low-skilled workers need to upgrade their skills to move into newly created medium-skilled jobs in expanding firms and sectors. Workers who stay in their jobs will face similar challenges as firms upgrade production processes towards more advanced technologies. Well-designed and well-funded training and adult education policies, combined with effective social protection and employment services, can go a long way to mitigate adjustment costs for low-skilled, unemployed and informal workers. Evidence suggests that training policies can make a real difference, provided that its content is aligned with skill demands in local labour markets. Moreover, the education system plays a fundamental role for preparing current and future generations for the challenges that international integration and rising digitalisation will bring about.

The recovery from the current deep recession caused by the COVID-19 pandemic will require raising productivity through structural reforms. This implies a number of challenges for economic policies. With large parts of the economy shielded from competition, firms face weak incentives to become more productive. Sizeable shares of labour and capital are trapped in low-productivity firms that survive on the back of support from distortive policies. Reallocation mechanisms such as continuous firm entry, exit or the growth of stronger firms on the expense of less productive ones appear weaker than elsewhere. Domestic regulatory burdens and market entry barriers are high, reducing domestic competitive pressures. External competition is hampered by high trade barriers that have precluded Brazil from the opportunities that an increasingly integrated world economy can offer. A fragmented tax system gives rise to one of the world’s highest tax compliance costs and a wide array of exemptions and special regimes reduces fairness and the redistribution effect of taxes. Financial markets used to be dominated by directed credit, but thanks to a successful policy reform that aligned directed lending rates with market rates, they are now undergoing a profound transformation. Challenges in contract enforcement suggest scope for changes in the organisation of the judiciary to reduce judicial uncertainty and reduce trial durations.

This paper presents a stocktaking of standalone chapters in trade agreements dedicated to good regulatory practices and international regulatory co-operation. While standalone regulatory policy chapters in trade agreements remain a new development, they signal countries’ increasing interest in elevating the visibility and ambition of regulatory policy, in line with their commitments in the 2012 OECD Recommendation of the Council on Regulatory Policy and Governance and the 2005 APEC-OECD Integrated Checklist on Regulatory Reform. Still, the level of ambition of these chapters varies widely depending on the state of play of regulatory policy in trading partners. By comparing the main substantive and structural features of these chapters, this stocktaking aims to inform the development of similar chapters in future trade agreements.

Public policies and services, such as education, health, welfare, infrastructure and sanitation, are increasingly developed and provided via different levels of government (national, regional and local), creating co-ordination and governance challenges. This report describes how Brazil’s 33 courts of accounts can use their oversight function – including audits – to help make such decentralised policies more effective and coherent. It presents the results of a 3-year project to improve how the courts can work together, using the area of education as a pilot for testing the use of indicators in the strategic selection of audits. The report offers a model for audit institutions to assess multi-level governance, and explores governance models for stronger collaboration among the courts of accounts in Brazil. These approaches may inspire and inform other supreme audit institutions with responsibilities for auditing decentralised policies and programmes involving central, regional and local governments.

The COVID-19 crisis has had a profound impact on SME access to finance. In particular, the sudden drop in revenues created acute liquidity shortages, threatening the survival of many viable businesses. The report documents an increase in demand for bank lending in the first half of 2020, and a steady supply of credit thanks to government interventions. On the other hand, other sources of finance declined, in particular early-stage equity. This paper, a special edition of Financing SMEs and Entrepreneurs, focuses on the impacts of COVID-19 on SME access to finance, along with government policy responses. It reveals that the pre-crisis financing environment was broadly favourable for SMEs and entrepreneurs, who benefited from low interest rates, loose credit standards and an increasingly diverse offer of financing instruments. It documents the unprecedented scope and scale of the policy responses undertaken by governments world-wide, and details their key characteristics, and outlines the principal issues and policy challenges for the next phases of the pandemic, such as the over-indebtedness of SMEs and the need to continue to foster a diverse range of financing instruments for SMEs.

Populations in OECD and emerging economies are ageing rapidly, which will have significant macroeconomic impacts, including on public expenditures and tax revenues. The rules and practices that govern fiscal relations among different levels of government, such as their responsibilities for taxation, spending and debt management, have a bearing on economic efficiency and ultimately growth. The consequences of population ageing at subnational government levels are especially intense. Many local governments are vulnerable to the ageing of their populations from a fiscal perspective. The economic and fiscal challenges of an ageing population go beyond intergovernmental boundaries, and they require complex intergovernmental policy responses. This volume brings together cross-country studies of fiscal policy, demographics and spatial productivity, as well as country studies of Brazil, Canada, China and Germany.