GDP is projected to grow by 2.8% in 2022, 1.2% in 2023, and 1.4% in 2024. Household consumption, private investment and exports will remain the main drivers of growth, although quarterly export growth is projected to slow in 2023. Household spending is buoyed by higher social transfers and vigorous employment growth but will also ease next year. Private investment will continue to rise on the back of improving business confidence.
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The need to rekindle economic activity after the pandemic only intensifies the urgency of tackling long-standing structural policy challenges. To sustain strong growth productivity needs to increase, as well as protection of those in need and economic opportunities for all.
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2021 Structural Reform Priorities
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused severe human suffering and triggered a deep recession in Brazil. Economic policies reacted in a timely and decisive manner to the crisis, supporting millions of Brazilians. But a strong and inclusive recovery from the recession will require long-lasting improvements in economic policies. Improving fiscal outcomes remains one of Brazil’s principal challenges given a high debt burden, to which the pandemic has added significantly.